Huckabee in Dead Heat with Obama (Latest Poll)

Latest Public Policy Polling shows for the ninth month in a row that Governor Mike Huckabee is the strongest Republican to take on President Obama in 2012.  This poll is the closest match-up yet between Huckabee and Obama with Huckabee only trailing him by one percentage point while hold Obama to only 46% of the vote.

GOP12 has a good analysis:

The good news? They’re all doing well. The surprising news? Post-clemency, Huck continues to out-poll his rivals and effectively ties the POTUS.

1. Barack Obama 46% Mike Huckabee 45%

2. Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42%

3. Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 44%

4. Barack Obama 48% Tim Pawlenty 35%

Key findings:

a. Obama job approval: 49%/47%, net of +2%.

b. Mike Huckabee favorables: 35%/35%, for even.

c. Mitt Romney favs: 32%/36%, net of -4%.

d. Sarah Palin favs: 41%/50%, net of -9%.

e. Tim Pawlenty favs: 12%/24%, net of -12%, with 64% expressing no opinion.

By Gender:

a. Among women, Palin’s favs are 37%/51%, among men 45%/50%.

b. Among women, Romney’s favs are 27%/35%, among men 37%/37%.

c. Among women, Huck’s favs are 32%/32%, among men 40%/38%.

d. Among women, Obama’s favs are 54%/49%, among men 42%/54%.

By Party ID:

a. Palin’s fav among Republican is highest, but that’s a bit deceptive since her name ID is also so high.

For example, 29% of Republicans aren’t sure about Huckabee and 34% aren’t sure of Romney. But only 9% aren’t sure of Palin. So naturally, name id is a confounding variable on this set of results.

By Race:

a. Obama beats Huck by 31% among Hispanics, 77% among blacks. Whites favor Huck by 18%.

b. Obama beats Palin by 42% among Hispanics, 82% among blacks. Whites favor Palin by 13%.

c. Obama beats Romney by 31% among Hispanics, 86% among blacks. Whites favor Romney by 14%.

By region:

Obama beats every Republican in the Northeast and West, but each Republican beats Obama in the South and Midwest. That Midwest result is very important. In fact, Huck routs Obama there by 18%.

Notes: Commutation?

Mike Huckabee might be leaning against a run for Prez, but it’s hard to see how he could turn down a bid if he continues to lead the pack.

The CW throughout much of the year is that a Palin bid would starve Huck of oxygen. But that’s based on the assumption Palin is a stronger contender.

The more likely phenomenon is that a Huck bid would starve Palin of oxygen, because throughout this year, we’ve learned that right now he’s the stronger candidate.

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3 comments so far

  1. Voter on

    “The CW throughout much of the year is that a Palin bid would starve Huck of oxygen. But that’s based on the assumption Palin is a stronger contender.

    “The more likely phenomenon is that a Huck bid would starve Palin of oxygen, because throughout this year, we’ve learned that right now he’s the stronger candidate.”

    That will be the shot heard round the world!!

  2. Clacks on

    I sure like this Mike Huckabee… glad to see he is polling well. If he does indeed decides to run I will support him 100%.

  3. FairTaxNow on

    Huckabee is smart enough to see the wisdom of the Fair Tax. That alone puts him WAY out in front of the same ol same ol crowd.


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